Housing’s strong start to 2023 continued with a “banner month” in April, when new-home sales were up on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis.
New-home sales in April also were higher than 2019 levels, according to Zonda’s New Home Market Update for the month. According to Zonda, April marked the first time since March 2021 when the month-over-month, year-over-year, and 2019 comparisons were all positive.
Housing growth in 2023 has benefited from low resale inventory, the existence of price inelastic buyers, home price adjustments at the end of 2022, the use of incentives, and demographic tailwinds. As a result, nearly 60% of builders surveyed by Zonda reported raising prices from March to April. However, while the current market is supportive of pricing power, affordability remains a paramount issue.
“Over 70% of builders are telling us that current mortgage rates are the biggest hurdle when it comes to housing demand,” says Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf. “Assume we resolve the debt ceiling debacle, there are reasons to believe mortgage rates could come down over the next 12 months on economic uncertainty and a narrowing of the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year fixed rate mortgages, but, for now, a substantial improvement is hope rather than reality.”
Zonda’s new-home sales metric counts the number of new-home contract sales and accounts for both cancellations and seasonality. The metric indicates there were 712,357 new homes sold in April on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, a 5.4% improvement from March and an 8% increase compared with 2022. On a nonseasonally adjusted basis, 62,656 homes were sold, 9.7% higher than last year and 8.4% above April 2019 levels.
The New Home Pending Sales Index (PSI)—created to account for fluctuations in supply by combining total sales volume with the average sales rate per month per community—decreased 0.4% to a reading of 137.5 in April. The index is 21.1% below cycle highs, according to Zonda.
Dallas (+28.4%), Salt Lake City (+25.1%), and Raleigh, North Carolina (+15.8%) reported the strongest year-over-year improvement in the PSI, while New York (-26.1%), Denver (-26.1%), and Phoenix (-16.6%) recorded the worst year-over-year performance.
On a monthly basis, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Austin, Texas—each among the markets hit the hardest during the housing slowdown of 2022—performed the strongest. Salt Lake City recorded a 16.3% increase in PSI compared with March.
Home prices rose on a year-over-year basis across all segment types—increasing 3.5% to $338,540 for entry-level homes, 3.5% to $528,712 for move-up homes, and 6.9% to $913,892 for high-end homes, according to Zonda.
In addition to the 60% of builders reporting raising prices month over month, Zonda’s survey indicated the remaining 40% of respondents held prices flat. The results directly contrast the end of 2022 when 50% of builders were lowering prices and 50% were holding prices flat. According to survey results, 58.4% of active projects are offering to-be-built incentives to help combat affordability. The average incentive dollar amount is $12,732, or 2.5% of list price.
The number of actively selling communities—those with five or more units for sale—decreased 0.3% on a year-over-year basis and 2.5% on a month-over-month basis to 13,750, according to Zonda. Total community count is 28.9% lower than 2019 levels.
Riverside/San Bernardino, California, Salt Lake City, and Los Angeles/Orange County grew community count the most year over year, while community count fell the most on an annual basis in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Tampa, Florida.
National quick move-ins (QMIs)—homes that can likely be occupied within 90 days—increased 120.4% on a year-over-year basis to 25,261, according to Zonda. The count is 9.6% lower than March QMI levels, however. QMIs, deemed “a liability” toward the end of 2022 as supply rose and demand pulled back, have turned into an asset for consumers looking to buy during the spring selling season.
Eighty-eight percent of Zonda’s selected markets reported an increased QMI count on a year-over-year basis, with the largest growth occurring in Jacksonville and Tampa, Florida, as well as Phoenix. Jacksonville, Phoenix, and Sacramento, California, have reported the most growth in QMIs compared with 2019 levels, according to Zonda. Compared with 2019, QMIs are the lowest in Los Angeles/Orange County, Baltimore, Atlanta, San Francisco, and Seattle.
